The Dems base part of their platform on their supposed “care” for the environment (don’t get me wrong – both sides pretend they care for various things in the name of power and control, I just chose one that the Dems use). I just want to take one example of how little the government can really do to impact our current situation. This is very simplistic and will never show up in Popular Science, but I think it accurately depicts the broader point.
This regards the discussion of the government imposing higher fuel standards (CAFE) on passenger vehicles. Arguing over CAFE standards like our politicians do is like killing someone over stealing a nickel.
Current fuel standards are approximately 21mpg for light trucks and 27.5 for cars. Recent legislation efforts were looking at increasing standards by about 10% for new vehicles built in the next 5 years. Let’s just up the ante a little and assume the following legislation:
- All cars and trucks MUST get 40pmg
- All new cars sold starting TODAY must meet that standard
- No cost impact to the car manufacturer and/or car buyer
Based on the bureau of transportation statistics, the following are accurate as of the year 2000:
- 225 million registered vehicles
- 190 million licensed drivers
- 2.5 trillion miles drive (motorcycles plus 2 axle vehicles)
- 126 billion gallons of fuel consumed
- ~ 20mpg on average.
- 1.85% - Average annual growth % in the number of total passenger vehicles between 1995 and 2000
- 16 million new cars sold in 2004
I’ll also point out trucks on the road had the following impact:
- Over 8 million trucks (3.5% of passenger vehicles)
- 205 billion miles (8% of passenger miles)
- 35 billion gallons of fuel consumed (almost 28% of passenger fuel consumed)
Buses are another separate segment for which I will ignore.
So, performing some simple math and relying on extending the above statistics I determined the following:
- 4.8% first year reduction in total fuel consumption (passenger vehicles only)
- 17% total reduction in 5 years
- Adding trucks back in (assuming NO growth in truck fuel usage) the decreases fall to 3.7% and 13.5% respectively.
- If we changed the standard to 30mpg for all passenger vehicles, then the decreases fall to 1.5% and 5.7% respectively (leaving out trucks)
These numbers are clearly overestimating the potential in that we assumed some things that will likely not happen:
- 40mpg? – yeah, right! 30mpg is not even likely.
- Starting today? Uh huh.
- Leaves out trucks and buses which together use about 1/3 as much fuel as passenger vehicles in total
- Assumes no increase in number of miles driven per car per year (historical stats show it increases every year)
- It also leaves out air travel entirely.
But let’s just assume that in 5 years due to these nifty legislative guidelines, that reducing fuel consumption by 17% from today in 5 years is possible. What difference will that make? Oh, I agree that we have to start somewhere and I agree that less is better than more, but exactly how far are we going to go by increasing fuel efficiency? No where! Especially when you realize that a reduction of this sort it quite simply impossible. Also, if we all stopped driving today, how long would it take for the impact of all our past driving to be wiped out? Reducing fuel consumption 17% does not mean that we are reducing the sum total of greenhouse gases, only that we are reducing the additional amount we are adding each and every day. What I would guess will actually happen is that even with any legislation, our fuel consumption will continue to increase in total as we put more cars on the road drive more miles each year even when buying slightly more fuel efficient vehicles over time.
My point is that arguing over the finer points of the CAFE legislation is useless. Environmental groups complain that Bush is not being tough enough with standards. Maybe so, but my point is that there is no viable standard that would make that much of a difference anyway. Democrats can cry foul all they want on this, but they must realize that the impact is almost insignificant. If politicians REALLY “cared” about the environment, they would:
- Stop using their own cars, mostly SUVs and limos, and planes and start using alternatives – Leading by example would be a start.
- Finding ways to encourage alternative energy and methods of transportation that the market (you and I) can embrace. Talking about this and “throwing” money at it over the last 3 decades has produced NOTHING!!
- Create REAL market incentives for companies to build alternatives.
My 2 bike rides to work per week do more to save fuel than any standard that could be put in place. My car gets about 25 mpg (this is real time, not what the car advertises) driving to work which is about 25 miles round trip each day. To save the same amount of gas by driving all 5 days as I save by biking, my car would have to get 41mpg. There are NOT many cars out there, if any, that get that kind of mileage commuting in traffic. If I ride one more day per week, the car would have to get 62.5mpg.
It might be more cost effective to pay me, via a tax credit, a couple of bucks for each ride than to impose some stupid fuel standard. Same thing applies to car poolers and mass transit users.
So when people get mad at conservatives for supporting a president that has a horrible environmental record (i.e. by not having tough enough CAFE standards), just remember the context of the actual impact we are arguing about.
As I’ve said before, let’s start getting some REAL solutions from both parties and stop all the play acting around insignificant tinkering with loser solutions.